I Diverge... American Presidential Election

Yesterday, while lounging poolside along with all of the tanned French people returning from vacation and their screaming children, I overheard three young girls speaking about the American presidential election. Though my French is not good enough to really understand, I realized that it is a topic of international interest. So rather that writing a typical blog today, I will blog about the contest between Obama and McCain.

Having heard so many opinions, I've realized that is exactly what they are... opinions. No one can predict the outcome of this race. And that is what is particularly disturning. The U.S. is engaged in two wars, the economy has faltered, unemployment is up and confidence in our government is down. When Nancy Pelosi became Speaker of the House, I was optimistic that things would improve. They haven't. The Democrats should be controlling the national agenda. Yet, the national polls show that Obama and McCain are close. There is no predictable winner.

Obama is loved by the Democrats because, like a college professor, he is articulate and speaks well. But governing require more than words. Hence, that is why Obama is consistently pestered with doubts about his relative lack of inexperience. Ahhh, but he will surround himself with intelligent people who will be able to help him realize his vision. Wait a minute, didn't George W. Bush say the same thing? Didn't he solicit the help of a bunch of Washington insiders, who knew how things really work? While the American Public is being offered change during Obama's speeches, what does that change look like and who will be implementing it? How will those Washington insiders help Obama bring about change?

And what was McCain thinking when he selected Sarah Palin as his vice-predidential running mate? What could she possibly bring to the ticket? As a working mother of five, one of whom is in Iraq, and no national experience (translation: Washington outsider) McCain's choice was brilliant or desperate. Conventional wisdom is that the vice-presidential candidate does not sway elections. If that case, her selection is irrelevant. But if this is an atypical election year, then maybe vice-presidential candidates, race and gender may play a role that is difficult to predict.

There is only one way for Obama to win. He must destroy McCain's reputation as a maverick. He must highlight that McCain is out of touch with the American public, will change his views on issues like tax breaks and immigration, and will do whatever is necessary to win including selecting an inexperienced woman from Alaska to be his running mate. He must paint McCain as a typical politician.

There is only one way for McCain to win. He must highlight that Obama is loved by the Democrats for his big ideas, his grand oratory and his winning style. Continue attacking Obama for his lack of experience and his naivete. He must highlight that it is easy to say what people want to hear, but that Obama has no clue on how to really bring about change. He must paint Obama as a typical politician who will say anything to get elected.

Though this presidential election will be influenced by many factors, the winner will be the one who without being explicit, does a better job of labelling the other as a "typical politician" who will do anything or say anything to get elected. Is it about race, gender, experience and wisdom? Of course it is. That's "politics as usual," which seems self apparent even as I lounge poolside, listening to the French rattle on about American presidential politics.